Model's Systems

Methodology

How it works

Projected score

The model starts with a raw projection built from each team's past scoring margins, on offense and defense. It then adjusts that projection for the strength of the opponents each team has faced, which produces a refined projected score for both teams in every game.

Edge

The difference between the model's projected spread and the sportsbook's opening line, shown as a win probability. A higher Edge % means the model sees a bigger gap on the cover pick. When the opening prices are on file, the sportsbook's built-in margin is removed first, so the comparison is a fair one.

Line move (CLV)

How far the sportsbook line has moved since it opened, measured from the model's pick: did the line move toward the pick? A plus number means it moved toward the pick, a minus number means it moved away. We track it for information only. It is not one of the tier conditions and it is not a bet result.

Game history

Each tier card opens a log of every graded pick in that tier, week by week: the line the pick was graded on, the final score, the result, and how far the line moved by kickoff.

Tiers

Every pick is checked against three conditions, all known before kickoff: the model's edge against the opening line is 3 points or more (Edge), the pick is the sportsbook underdog (Dog), and the pick is the away team (Away). Tier A meets all three, Tier B meets two, and Tier C meets one or none. Every tier's record is published, wins and losses, and the sample is still small.