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Factor Analytics
Data-driven models for sports that reward systematic thinking.
Factor Analytics was born in March 2024 on the UConn campus, right in the middle of their back-to-back national championship run. Everyone around us was filling out bracket pools, picking teams based on gut feelings and mascot preferences. We figured there had to be something more systematic underneath all of this.
One search for “Four Factors basketball” later and we were deep in efficiency stats, pace adjustments, and schedule strength corrections. What started as an attempt to win a bracket pool turned into a full projection model, then a second independent model to cross-check the first, then a backtesting framework to see which disagreements between the models were actually predictive.
The framework has since expanded beyond college basketball into the WNBA, and NFL data is being gathered and tested. Today the system runs fully automated, scraping scores and lines every morning and overnight, updating every team’s ratings, and generating fresh projections for every upcoming game on the slate.
Every public rating, projection, and system on the site comes from the Pure Points Margin model. A second model is in research.
The PPM model reads the winning margin of every game to build its ratings. It measures each team’s offense and defense by who they played, who they beat, and by how much, then keeps refining those ratings until they settle into one consistent picture of team strength. It is built from game scores alone, with no subjective inputs.
A second college basketball model, built on the team efficiency statistics that most strongly predict game outcomes: shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, and free throw generation, each measured against the defenses a team has faced. It runs privately while its data and sample grow, and will be published once it meets the same standard as the Pure Points Margin model.
College Basketball
Pure Points Margin model · 3,300+ games tracked
Women's NBA
Live this season · 3 tracked systems
Pro Football
Gathering and testing data... coming soon
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Questions about the models, the data, or the platform? Reach us at factoranalyticsapp@gmail.com.
Factor Analytics provides model outputs for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial or gambling advice. Past system performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.